Fantasy Basketball Sleepers and Busts
Where the draft market and the category math disagree most. ADP from Sleeper drafts, value from per-game 9-cat z-scores.
Sleepers: drafted later than their value
| Player | ADP | 9-Cat rank | Gap | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 217 | 90 | +127 | Projected for 7 more minutes a game than last season; helps in REB and STL; weak in 3PM and FT%, so he suits a build that punts those. | |
| 173 | 49 | +124 | Projected for 4 more minutes a game than last season; helps in AST; weak in BLK and REB, so he suits a build that punts those. | |
| 146 | 29 | +117 | Missed last season, so drafters are cautious; helps in FT% and 3PM; weak in FG% and BLK, so he suits a build that punts those. | |
| 225 | 110 | +115 | Helps in 3PM; weak in FG% and PTS, so he suits a build that punts those. | |
| 242 | 130 | +112 | Helps in turnovers (he rarely commits them); weak in REB and 3PM, so he suits a build that punts those. | |
| 223 | 118 | +105 | Projected for 3 more minutes a game than last season; helps in AST; weak in PTS and REB, so he suits a build that punts those. | |
| 162 | 63 | +99 | Helps in STL and turnovers (he rarely commits them); weak in PTS and REB, so he suits a build that punts those. | |
| 110 | 14 | +96 | Missed last season, so drafters are cautious; helps in 3PM and FT%. | |
| 182 | 86 | +96 | Projected for 17 more minutes a game than last season; helps in BLK and REB; weak in STL and AST, so he suits a build that punts those. | |
| 152 | 76 | +76 | Helps in STL; weak in REB, so he suits a build that punts it. | |
| 132 | 59 | +73 | Helps in STL and AST; weak in TO, so he suits a build that punts it. | |
| 101 | 30 | +71 | Helps in BLK and REB; weak in 3PM and AST, so he suits a build that punts those. | |
| 127 | 70 | +57 | Helps in turnovers (he rarely commits them) and FG%; weak in BLK, so he suits a build that punts it. | |
| 176 | 121 | +55 | Projected for 6 more minutes a game than last season; helps in 3PM; weak in FG%, so he suits a build that punts it. | |
| 92 | 38 | +54 | Helps in REB and BLK; weak in FT% and STL, so he suits a build that punts those. | |
| 94 | 40 | +54 | Helps in BLK. | |
| 178 | 126 | +52 | Helps in STL; weak in FG% and REB, so he suits a build that punts those. | |
| 174 | 123 | +51 | Helps in turnovers (he rarely commits them); weak in BLK and FG%, so he suits a build that punts those. | |
| 151 | 102 | +49 | Missed last season, so drafters are cautious; helps in turnovers (he rarely commits them); weak in FG% and REB, so he suits a build that punts those. | |
| 165 | 119 | +46 | Helps in 3PM; weak in REB and FG%, so he suits a build that punts those. |
Busts: drafted earlier than their 9-cat value
| Player | ADP | 9-Cat rank | Gap | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 253 | -168 | Projected for 12 fewer minutes a game than last season; costs you in STL and PTS; currently listed DTD. | |
| 53 | 198 | -145 | Costs you in TO. | |
| 47 | 190 | -143 | Costs you in TO and REB. | |
| 99 | 220 | -121 | Projected for 3 fewer minutes a game than last season; costs you in BLK and REB; currently listed Out. | |
| 100 | 212 | -112 | Costs you in FT% and STL. | |
| 28 | 138 | -110 | Costs you in TO and FT%. | |
| 25 | 103 | -78 | ||
| 90 | 164 | -74 | Costs you in FG%; currently listed DTD. | |
| 31 | 100 | -69 | Costs you in TO; currently listed DTD. | |
| 96 | 161 | -65 | Costs you in REB and BLK; currently listed DTD. | |
| 61 | 125 | -64 | Costs you in TO and BLK. | |
| 42 | 99 | -57 | ||
| 37 | 92 | -55 | Costs you in TO. | |
| 10 | 64 | -54 | Costs you in FT% and TO; currently listed GTD. | |
| 7 | 55 | -48 | Costs you in FT% and TO. |
Healthy players only in the sleepers list. Full side-by-side list: ADP vs value.
Common questions
How are sleepers and busts picked?
By comparing where each player is drafted on Sleeper with where per-game 9-cat value ranks him. A sleeper is drafted at least 25 spots later than his value; a bust is drafted 30 or more spots earlier. The reason under each name comes from his projected minutes, his strongest and weakest categories and his injury status.
Does a bust mean a bad player?
No. It means the price is too high for 9-cat leagues. Many busts here are great real-life scorers who hurt you in FG%, FT% or turnovers. In points leagues, or in a build that punts those categories, the same player can be fine value.